Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.529700 29.385874 32.642474 36.683329 41.640597 4.763365e+01 55.609145
2025-02-16 22.685435 26.365504 30.940634 37.238305 46.030108 5.850538e+01 79.013963
2025-02-23 19.834746 23.811589 29.062599 36.872366 48.982633 6.885930e+01 109.802739
2025-03-02 17.961217 22.114115 27.868000 37.002792 52.582066 8.218452e+01 162.172896
2025-03-09 16.437523 20.623397 26.639462 36.699175 55.295460 9.582154e+01 245.604244
2025-03-16 15.206974 19.364477 25.517240 36.256604 57.554982 1.104908e+02 398.301906
2025-03-23 14.213136 18.323236 24.557522 35.851427 59.726880 1.273763e+02 755.894828
2025-03-30 13.414010 17.481815 23.788941 35.610236 62.174544 1.485606e+02 2238.641029
2025-04-06 12.611889 16.559646 22.774630 34.707559 62.755377 1.646437e+02 22828.936581
2025-04-13 12.366095 16.467770 23.115924 36.498860 71.003942 2.335134e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 11.810431 15.837986 22.461755 36.123140 73.148892 2.784169e+02 NaN
2025-04-27 11.403581 15.414443 22.121909 36.354199 77.341206 3.627948e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 11.045698 15.051303 21.865214 36.757499 82.579026 5.136640e+02 NaN
2025-05-11 10.682129 14.653893 21.507815 36.872408 87.035966 7.499303e+02 NaN
2025-05-18 10.270650 14.150770 20.909376 36.316627 88.705900 1.016749e+03 NaN
2025-05-25 9.962459 13.803143 20.574435 36.354322 93.055231 1.807262e+03 NaN
2025-06-01 9.638618 13.410116 20.119803 36.019355 95.680007 3.509484e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 9.328092 13.023572 19.648416 35.572420 97.645458 9.636054e+03 NaN
2025-06-15 9.045090 12.670544 19.217406 35.171884 99.756181 2.361409e+06 NaN
2025-06-22 8.798028 12.368077 18.865180 34.934657 102.762674 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.506010 11.974315 18.305779 34.058705 101.697285 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.472884 12.033248 18.661076 35.792405 118.336208 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.255748 11.754681 18.305192 35.428415 120.952043 NaN NaN